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UBS analysts have identified several factors that could positively impact the Brazilian Real (BRL), including a doubled carry over six months, light market positioning, and cheap valuations. Improvements in the current account, driven by strong agricultural output, may also support the currency. In contrast, the Mexican Peso (MXN) faces challenges, including low foreign exchange premia and potential rate cuts by the Central Bank of Mexico, alongside risks from U.S. tariffs and policies.
UBS analysts have identified a positive outlook for the Brazilian real (BRL), citing a doubled carry, favorable valuations, and potential improvements in the current account balance due to strong agricultural production. In contrast, the Mexican peso (MXN) faces challenges, including low currency premiums and potential interest rate cuts by the central bank, alongside risks from US tariffs and political factors.
UBS analysts see potential for the Brazilian Real (BRL) to strengthen, citing a doubled carry, light market positioning, and cheap valuations, alongside expected improvements in the current account from strong agricultural output. In contrast, the Mexican Peso (MXN) faces challenges, including low exchange rate premiums and potential rate cuts by Banxico, compounded by risks from U.S. tariffs and policies. Recent inflation data for Mexico indicates a slight monthly decline, but an acceleration is anticipated in February.
UBS analyst Thiago Batista upgraded Itau Unibanco stock from Neutral to Buy, lowering the price target to R$41.00. The bank reported a strong Q3 with a 20% year-over-year increase in recurring results, while maintaining a robust loan portfolio despite macroeconomic challenges. Investments in technology have enhanced efficiency, although growth in the acquiring business has slowed.
Fidelity Digital Assets predicts that 2025 will be a crucial year for Bitcoin (BTC) adoption, driven by increasing interest from nation-states and government treasuries. Following significant developments in 2024, including the approval of US spot BTC ETFs, countries like Brazil, Chile, Canada, and the Czech Republic are considering establishing BTC reserves, inspired by the successes of El Salvador and Bhutan. Analysts warn that nations may face greater risks by not investing in BTC amid economic challenges like inflation and fiscal deficits.
Natural disasters in 2024 resulted in global economic losses of $320 billion, with $140 billion insured, marking the fifth most expensive year since 1980. Hurricane Helene was the most damaging event, causing $56 billion in losses. Climate change is increasingly linked to the frequency and severity of such disasters, highlighting the urgent need for global resilience efforts.
Bybit has launched its Physical Card for Brazilian users, enhancing their ability to use cryptocurrency for everyday transactions. The card offers a 2% cashback on purchases, supports USDT, BTC, and ETH, and includes benefits like free issuance, no fees, and integration with Apple Pay and Google Pay. Users must first apply for the Bybit Virtual Card to access the Physical Card, reflecting Bybit's commitment to providing innovative financial tools in Brazil.
Julius Baer has agreed to sell its Brazilian wealth management subsidiary to Banco BTG Pactual for CHF 91 million, a move expected to enhance its CET1 capital ratio by approximately 30 basis points. The sale, which is subject to regulatory approvals and anticipated to close in Q1 2025, allows Julius Baer to continue serving Brazilian clients from other locations while focusing on enhancing investment capabilities.
Julius Baer is divesting its Brazilian wealth management subsidiary to Banco BTG Pactual, while continuing to serve clients from other locations. The sale, valued at CHF 91 million, is expected to enhance Julius Baer's CET1 capital ratio by approximately 30 basis points and is set to close in early 2025, pending regulatory approvals.
Stefan Bollinger is set to take over as CEO of Julius Baer, succeeding interim head Nic Dreckmann. In a significant move, BTG Pactual has been chosen as the preferred buyer for Baer's Brazilian operations, with André Esteves, a former UBS executive, leading the charge. Meanwhile, Rolf Olmesdahl is brought in to address IT challenges at Baer, as the bank faces critical weeks ahead with potential leadership changes in its Board of Directors.
Brazilian Real
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